Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is unlikely to have any major impact on the Indian rupee and the forex volatility in the country (USD/INR) has been much less now as compared to the global financial crisis which took place in 2008, SBI said in its Ecowrap research report. The report said that though the conflict between the two CIS nations may drag on for now, it is expected that the USD/INR, the most tracked pair in the local forex market, will trade at an elevated zone. But ideally, the expected average range of the rupee is expected to be in the band Between Rs 76 to Rs 78 to the USD with an appreciated bias.
The Western world keeps talking, ratcheting up sanctions, the only thing it can do. The Russians march on to Kyiv and capture Zelensky and key members of his government as part of their 'de-Nazification' drive, predicts Shreekant Sambrani.
Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
With no major domestic market moving triggers this week, equities would continue to look at global factors, foreign fund movement and trend in the rupee for further direction, analysts said. "This week we have the August month F&O expiry where bulls are looking for rest after a gain in the August series," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. "There are not a lot of triggers but global cues, August month F&O expiry, and FIIs' behaviour will be important factors in the direction of the market," he noted.
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
Stocks of Indian companies with exposure to Europe fell on Tuesday amid concerns about the impact on their sales in case the Russia-Ukraine crisis worsens and the US and its allies impose economic sanctions on Russia. While top conglomerates, including Reliance Industries, the Tata group, and Aditya Birla Group, said they did not have any significant exposure to Russia, executives of some of the oil and gas, pharmaceutical, and tea companies said they were monitoring the situation closely as they earned substantial income from the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered troops into two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine after announcing that Russia would recognise their independence.
The top diplomats of Quad nations on Friday denounced as "inadmissible" any use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war and strongly opposed any "unilateral actions" that seek to change the status quo in the South and East China Seas, a region that has witnessed increasing Chinese military offensive.
Oil producers cartel OPEC's share in India's oil imports fell to an all-time low of 46 per cent in April as purchases of cheaper Russian oil peaked, industry data showed. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) nations, mainly in the Middle East and Africa, had a 72 per cent share of all crude oil India imported in April 2022. This share slid to 46 per cent in April 2023, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday made a fresh push for reforms in global institutions, including the United Nations, asserting that the world's 'new realities' should be reflected in 'new global structure' as it is nature's law that those who don't change with times lose their relevance.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who was representing President Vladimir Putin, left Bali on Wednesday, a day ahead of the scheduled conclusion of the G20 Summit held amid the economic challenges triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war.
India's net oil import bill could widen to $101-104 billion in current fiscal from $96.1 billion in 2023-24 and any escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could impart an upward pressure on the value of imports, ICRA said on Tuesday. The domestic rating agency said based on its analysis, lower value of Russian oil imports is estimated to have led to savings of $7.9 billion in 11 months (April-February) of 2023-24, up from $5.1 billion in 2022-23.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will be on a two-day official visit to India from Thursday, his first trip to the country since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine last month.
India has a difficult relationship with China but it is 'perfectly capable' of managing it, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said on Friday, rejecting the European construct that New Delhi's position on Ukraine could impact global support to it if its problems with Beijing increases.
US President Joe Biden is set to meet his Chinese counterpart on Wednesday in the San Francisco Bay Area, CNN reported, citing senior US administration officials.
Tea planters and exporters are "extremely worried" over the possible impact on their shipments to Russia, India's second largest buyer of tea, in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Western sanctions and disruption of payments in dollars as well as transhipments to Russia are expected as a fall-out of Russia launching an attack on Ukraine on Thursday. "The Russian market for Indian tea is extremely important as there are payment issues for shipments to Iran, another vital tea export destination. "Around 18 per cent of India's tea shipments go to Russia," India Tea Association chairperson Nayantara Palchoudhuri told PTI.
On Pakistan, the publication quoted him as saying that India wants "normal and neighborly relations."
"We work with other countries to develop their capabilities and support their efforts to make free sovereign choices. More broadly, we aim to advance peace and stability in the region," he asserted.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
The virtual meeting comes in the midst of some disquiet in Washington over India's position on the Ukraine crisis as well as its decision to procure discounted Russian oil.
A step away from nuclear weapons being used in conflicts, warns Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
The value of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Indian equities was at $542 billion in the March quarter of 2023, a decline of 11 per cent from the preceding year, largely due to the exodus of foreign money from the domestic market, according to a Morningstar report. In comparison, the value of FPI in Indian equities was $612 billion in the January-March quarter of 2022. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the value of FPI in Indian equities fell by 7 per cent from $584 billion recorded in the three months ended December 2022.
All investors should ideally have a 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold. Whether they invest in gold ETFs or SGBs should depend on their investment horizon.
A bench comprising Chief Justice DY Chandrachud and Justices JB Pardiwala and Manoj Misra said Indian firms, involved in the export of arms and equipment to Israel, may be sued for breach of contractual obligations if they are stopped by it from supplying.
Addressing a huge gathering in Lahore, Imran played a video clip of India's Foreign Minister S Jaishankar from Bratislava Forum held in Slovakia and praised the Indian minister for standing firm to the United States pressure over buying cheap oil from Russia.
'If the Russian forces do capture Kyiv and set up some sort of provisional government, they might run into an insurgency, for which the geography is just right, it could prove costly for them.' 'In that event, the whole exercise could turn out to be counter-productive -- and costly in both foreign policy and domestic terms.'
Notwithstanding its continuing military strikes against Ukraine, Russia has started supplying some components of the second regiment of the S-400 Triumf missile defence system to India, people familiar with the development said on Friday.
After the first quarter was washed out, exporters are now keeping their fingers crossed over a turnaround in outbound shipments to at least North America from September onwards. This comes even as other key destinations such as Europe may take longer to revive in FY24. Slowdown in key economies, as well as geopolitical tensions resulted in sluggish demand for Indian goods.
India has substantially increased its crude oil imports from the US, with the country's share in India's crude basket hitting a record 14.3 per cent in December, commerce ministry data showed.
The world is in a state of crisis and it is difficult to predict how long this state of instability will last, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Thursday referring to various global challenges arising out of conflict, war and terrorism among others. In his opening remarks at the Voice of Global South virtual summit, Modi flagged concerns over rising prices of food, fuel and fertilisers, economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as natural disasters driven by climate change. "We are meeting as a new year dawns and brings new hopes and new energy," Modi said.
The triennial exercise will take place for two hours and fifteen minutes during the day, dusk and night, he said.
The US hopes India will "reconsider" its decision to ban wheat exports, with Washington "encouraging" countries not to restrict exports as that will exacerbate food shortages, amidst Russia's invasion of Ukraine. India, the world's second-biggest wheat producer, has banned wheat exports in a bid to check high domestic prices amid concerns of wheat output being hit by scorching heat waves. The decision would help control retail prices of wheat and wheat flour, which have risen by an average 14-20 per cent in the last one year, besides meeting the foodgrain requirement of neighbouring and vulnerable countries.
Paris 2024 gearing up to face unprecedented cybersecurity threat
In New Delhi, Singh will continue US administration's ongoing consultations with India, and advance a range of issues in the US-India economic relationship and strategic partnership.
Foreign direct investment into the country is expected to rebound in the coming months on account of India's high economic growth, and steps to further improve the business environment of India, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday. The rise in global uncertainty in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, FDI equity inflows in the manufacturing sector in the first half of the current fiscal (April-September) fell below its corresponding level in the first half of 2021-22, the document, which was tabled in Parliament, said. The monetary tightening at the global level has further restricted the FDI equity inflows, the survey said.
The external affairs minister reiterated India's position on Afghanistan and highlighted its humanitarian support to the war-torn country, including the supply of wheat, medicines, vaccines and clothing.
India appears poised to sustain its growth in a more durable way than before with the economy carrying the momentum from FY23 into the current fiscal year, the Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 released by the finance ministry on Thursday said. However, the report cautioned that escalation of geopolitical stress, enhanced volatility in global financial systems, sharp price correction in global stock markets, a high magnitude of El-Nino impact, and modest trade activity and FDI inflows, are factors that could constrain the pace of growth. "Should these developments deepen and dampen growth in the subsequent quarters, the external sector may challenge India's growth outlook for FY24," the finance ministry said.
Equity investors became richer by over Rs 7.21 lakh crore as stock markets continued the rally for the second day on Wednesday. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened in the green on Wednesday and further jumped 1,469.64 points or 2.75 per cent to 54,893.73 during the day. It finally settled at 54,647.33, higher by 1,223.24 points or 2.29 per cent amid reports of diplomatic efforts to end Russia's attack on Ukraine. On Tuesday, it settled at 53,424.09, higher by 581.34 points or 1.10 per cent.
Russia on Monday accused the US of "actively" exploiting the "contradictions" between India and China to its advantage and asserted Moscow and New Delhi accumulated mutual trust and confidence based on decades-old ties that would help the two sides to deal with the current geopolitical turbulence.
Taking a dig at Pakistan without naming it, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday said a country which was a supplier of aatank (terror) is struggling for aata (flour) these days.
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